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England · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 5 May 2025

National League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 York 46 96 81.2
+14.8
+17.4%
2 Barnet 46 102 89.8
+12.2
+7.7%
3 Halifax 46 70 61.9
+8.1
+3.9%
4 Tamworth 46 64 56.4
+7.6
−3.0%
5 Forest Green 46 83 79.1
+3.9
−10.5%
6 Boston United 46 55 51.7
+3.3
+12.1%
7 Braintree Town 46 56 52.9
+3.1
+12.0%
8 Woking 46 58 55.5
+2.5
−27.7%
9 Eastleigh 46 59 56.7
+2.3
−22.6%
10 Rochdale 46 74 72.7
+1.3
−6.1%
11 Oldham 46 73 73.3
−0.3
−17.7%
12 Maidenhead 46 52 52.6
−0.6
+2.7%
13 Wealdstone 46 53 55.0
−2.0
−27.4%
14 Altrincham 46 64 66.1
−2.1
−9.6%
15 Yeovil 46 56 58.5
−2.5
−9.2%
16 Aldershot 46 57 59.5
−2.5
−17.7%
17 Sutton 46 60 64.8
−4.8
−17.1%
18 Solihull 46 58 63.2
−5.2
−8.3%
19 Southend 46 68 73.6
−5.6
−25.8%
20 Hartlepool 46 60 66.2
−6.2
−28.6%
21 Gateshead 46 67 73.7
−6.7
−19.5%
22 Fylde 46 40 48.1
−8.1
−10.2%
23 Dagenham & Redbridge 46 52 60.8
−8.8
−34.9%
24 Ebbsfleet 46 22 39.8
−17.8
−79.0%