ESEN

England · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 25 Apr 2026

National League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Rochdale 46 106 86.1
+19.9
+22.0%
2 Carlisle 46 95 79.3
+15.7
+18.8%
3 York 46 108 95.1
+12.9
+3.7%
4 Scunthorpe 46 82 70.9
+11.1
+16.0%
5 Boreham Wood 46 90 80.6
+9.4
+1.3%
6 Halifax 46 70 61.0
+9.0
+7.8%
7 Woking 46 63 58.2
+4.8
−6.7%
8 Tamworth 46 62 57.7
+4.3
+1.7%
9 Boston United 46 59 55.2
+3.8
+1.4%
10 Hartlepool 46 68 64.7
+3.3
−2.0%
11 Gateshead 46 50 48.7
+1.3
+3.2%
12 Yeovil 46 51 50.9
+0.1
−8.8%
13 Altrincham 46 57 57.4
−0.4
−5.2%
14 Wealdstone 46 56 56.9
−0.9
−17.3%
15 Solihull 46 56 58.2
−2.2
−12.6%
16 Forest Green 46 81 84.0
−3.0
−19.1%
17 Eastleigh 46 50 53.4
−3.4
−18.4%
18 Southend 46 81 84.7
−3.7
−19.3%
19 Braintree Town 46 36 45.9
−9.9
−48.3%
20 Morecambe 46 38 48.3
−10.3
−25.1%
21 Sutton 46 47 57.5
−10.5
−35.0%
22 Aldershot 46 46 58.1
−12.1
−31.3%
23 Brackley Town 46 42 56.0
−14.0
−44.1%
24 Truro 46 34 50.4
−16.4
−46.3%