England · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 26 Jul 2020

Premier League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Liverpool	38	99	82.0	+17.0	+24.8%
2	Burnley	38	54	39.6	+14.4	+38.4%
3	Sheffield United	38	54	45.7	+8.3	+13.3%
4	Newcastle	38	44	36.6	+7.4	+29.9%
5	Southampton	38	52	45.6	+6.4	+40.7%
6	Crystal Palace	38	43	38.7	+4.3	−2.7%
7	Wolverhampton	38	59	55.4	+3.6	+39.7%
8	Leicester	38	62	60.6	+1.4	−10.2%
9	Manchester United	38	66	67.0	−1.0	+12.2%
10	Aston Villa	38	35	37.2	−2.2	−33.1%
11	West Ham	38	39	41.8	−2.8	+0.8%
12	Brighton	38	41	43.9	−2.9	−25.6%
13	Arsenal	38	56	59.9	−3.9	−21.4%
14	Everton	38	49	53.3	−4.3	−20.9%
15	Chelsea	38	66	70.3	−4.3	−3.4%
16	Tottenham	38	59	63.5	−4.5	−15.8%
17	Bournemouth	38	34	39.4	−5.4	+1.6%
18	Watford	38	34	43.4	−9.4	−33.5%
19	Manchester City	38	81	91.1	−10.1	−13.6%
20	Norwich	38	21	33.6	−12.6	+13.4%