England · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 22 May 2022

Premier League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Newcastle	38	49	39.6	+9.4	−0.9%
2	Liverpool	38	92	82.8	+9.2	+2.7%
3	Tottenham	38	71	61.9	+9.1	+40.0%
4	Wolverhampton	38	51	44.4	+6.6	+27.8%
5	Arsenal	38	69	63.7	+5.3	+11.2%
6	Brentford	38	46	41.7	+4.3	+22.7%
7	Crystal Palace	38	48	44.3	+3.7	+26.2%
8	Leicester	38	52	48.4	+3.6	−5.3%
9	Manchester City	38	93	89.6	+3.4	+1.5%
10	West Ham	38	56	54.0	+2.0	+2.1%
11	Brighton	38	51	49.4	+1.6	−1.8%
12	Burnley	38	35	37.4	−2.4	−36.4%
13	Chelsea	38	74	76.9	−2.9	−14.9%
14	Aston Villa	38	45	49.6	−4.6	−3.2%
15	Southampton	38	40	45.3	−5.3	−31.5%
16	Everton	38	39	44.9	−5.9	−18.3%
17	Leeds	38	38	44.7	−6.7	−38.2%
18	Norwich	38	22	29.8	−7.8	−48.9%
19	Manchester United	38	58	65.9	−7.9	−26.6%
20	Watford	38	23	33.3	−10.3	−23.8%