England · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 28 May 2023

Premier League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Brentford	38	59	46.6	+12.4	+61.6%
2	Aston Villa	38	61	49.5	+11.5	+33.1%
3	Fulham	38	52	40.7	+11.3	+22.1%
4	Arsenal	38	84	73.6	+10.4	+17.1%
5	Manchester United	38	75	65.5	+9.5	+19.2%
6	Newcastle	38	71	62.8	+8.2	−3.0%
7	Bournemouth	38	39	33.0	+6.0	+14.8%
8	Nottingham Forest	38	38	33.7	+4.3	−0.8%
9	Manchester City	38	89	86.3	+2.7	+0.8%
10	Crystal Palace	38	45	43.1	+1.9	−24.0%
11	Brighton	38	62	60.5	+1.5	+9.9%
12	Tottenham	38	60	60.1	−0.1	−3.7%
13	Wolverhampton	38	41	42.9	−1.9	−14.8%
14	Everton	38	36	40.5	−4.5	−15.8%
15	Liverpool	38	67	74.5	−7.5	−12.7%
16	West Ham	38	40	47.9	−7.9	−32.9%
17	Leicester	38	34	43.7	−9.7	−33.3%
18	Southampton	38	25	35.8	−10.8	−30.8%
19	Leeds	38	31	42.8	−11.8	−24.4%
20	Chelsea	38	44	64.0	−20.0	−50.7%