Points expected by the market
The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.
England · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 25 May 2025
Premier League: the market vs the results
Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.
Gap
Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.
Yield
The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.
Sorted by gap, high to low
Above expectationsBelow expectations
| 1 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 65 | 49.2 |
+15.8
|
+54.6% |
| 2 | Brentford | 38 | 56 | 47.3 |
+8.7
|
+3.7% |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 38 | 66 | 58.3 |
+7.7
|
+9.4% |
| 4 | Everton | 38 | 48 | 41.9 |
+6.1
|
+14.7% |
| 5 | Brighton | 38 | 61 | 56.1 |
+4.9
|
+8.5% |
| 6 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 53 | 48.4 |
+4.6
|
−6.2% |
| 7 | Liverpool | 38 | 84 | 80.0 |
+4.0
|
−4.9% |
| 8 | Fulham | 38 | 54 | 50.1 |
+3.9
|
+15.9% |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 38 | 56 | 52.9 |
+3.1
|
+16.6% |
| 10 | Newcastle | 38 | 66 | 63.2 |
+2.8
|
+1.5% |
| 11 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 42 | 41.0 |
+1.0
|
−3.8% |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 69 | 68.3 |
+0.7
|
−9.8% |
| 13 | West Ham | 38 | 43 | 43.0 |
0.0
|
+10.7% |
| 14 | Arsenal | 38 | 74 | 76.9 |
−2.9
|
−20.6% |
| 15 | Manchester City | 38 | 71 | 76.6 |
−5.6
|
−16.6% |
| 16 | Leicester | 38 | 25 | 30.7 |
−5.7
|
−47.2% |
| 17 | Ipswich | 38 | 22 | 31.7 |
−9.7
|
−22.3% |
| 18 | Manchester United | 38 | 42 | 54.3 |
−12.3
|
−31.8% |
| 19 | Tottenham | 38 | 38 | 52.5 |
−14.5
|
−28.5% |
| 20 | Southampton | 38 | 12 | 28.9 |
−16.9
|
−82.3% |