Portugal · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 26 Jul 2020

Primeira Liga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Famalicao	34	54	45.2	+8.8	+26.6%
2	Porto	34	82	75.1	+6.9	+14.7%
3	Moreirense	34	43	37.0	+6.0	−25.2%
4	Maritimo	34	39	35.7	+3.3	+1.2%
5	Santa Clara	34	43	40.0	+3.0	+23.7%
6	Gil Vicente	34	43	40.2	+2.8	+20.6%
7	Rio Ave	34	55	52.2	+2.8	+11.4%
8	Boavista	34	39	37.4	+1.6	+9.5%
9	Belenenses	34	35	33.4	+1.6	−16.7%
10	Benfica	34	77	75.8	+1.2	−1.3%
11	Tondela	34	36	36.7	−0.7	−1.4%
12	Sporting CP	34	60	61.1	−1.1	−14.9%
13	Pacos Ferreira	34	39	40.2	−1.2	+3.4%
14	Setubal	34	34	35.3	−1.3	−31.5%
15	Sporting de Braga	34	60	64.3	−4.3	+10.0%
16	Guimaraes	34	50	58.1	−8.1	−37.8%
17	Portimonense	34	33	42.5	−9.5	−54.2%
18	Aves	34	17	30.2	−13.2	−35.9%