Portugal · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 19 May 2021

Primeira Liga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Sporting CP	34	85	66.2	+18.8	+28.0%
2	Pacos Ferreira	34	53	43.0	+10.0	+20.6%
3	Moreirense	34	43	33.8	+9.2	−1.1%
4	Porto	34	80	75.0	+5.0	−5.2%
5	Santa Clara	34	46	42.6	+3.4	+11.1%
6	Tondela	34	36	32.6	+3.4	−8.7%
7	Belenenses	34	40	36.8	+3.2	−7.2%
8	Benfica	34	76	75.3	+0.7	−6.4%
9	Sporting de Braga	34	64	63.3	+0.7	−3.2%
10	Gil Vicente	34	39	40.1	−1.1	+25.1%
11	Famalicao	34	40	41.4	−1.4	−23.1%
12	Maritimo	34	35	36.5	−1.5	+34.6%
13	Boavista	34	36	40.0	−4.0	−9.1%
14	Guimaraes	34	43	48.9	−5.9	−27.3%
15	Portimonense	34	35	42.7	−7.7	−34.1%
16	Farense	34	31	39.6	−8.6	−47.2%
17	Nacional	34	25	34.1	−9.1	−47.6%
18	Rio Ave	34	34	45.8	−11.8	−56.6%