Portugal · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 15 May 2022

Primeira Liga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Porto	34	91	78.4	+12.6	+11.9%
2	Sporting CP	34	85	72.8	+12.2	+17.3%
3	Gil Vicente	34	51	46.1	+4.9	+7.2%
4	Sporting de Braga	34	65	60.6	+4.4	+12.2%
5	Benfica	34	74	72.5	+1.5	+0.8%
6	Boavista	34	38	36.6	+1.4	−36.4%
7	Maritimo	34	38	37.1	+0.9	−7.0%
8	Pacos Ferreira	34	38	37.9	+0.1	−25.1%
9	Guimaraes	34	48	48.3	−0.3	−13.2%
10	Portimonense	34	38	39.4	−1.4	+23.6%
11	Estoril	34	39	40.9	−1.9	−30.9%
12	Santa Clara	34	40	42.1	−2.1	−21.1%
13	Belenenses	34	26	29.9	−3.9	−50.8%
14	Arouca	34	31	37.5	−6.5	−39.9%
15	Vizela	34	33	39.9	−6.9	−48.6%
16	Tondela	34	28	35.1	−7.1	−37.5%
17	Famalicao	34	39	46.7	−7.7	−40.6%
18	Moreirense	34	29	38.7	−9.7	−43.9%