Portugal · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 27 May 2023

Primeira Liga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Arouca	34	54	38.3	+15.7	+30.2%
2	Sporting de Braga	34	78	65.0	+13.0	+20.7%
3	Guimaraes	34	53	42.8	+10.2	+13.0%
4	Chaves	34	46	37.0	+9.0	+78.2%
5	Porto	34	85	77.1	+7.9	+16.9%
6	Benfica	34	87	80.5	+6.5	+5.6%
7	Boavista	34	44	39.8	+4.2	+4.5%
8	Rio Ave	34	40	37.8	+2.2	−3.2%
9	Casa Pia	34	41	40.4	+0.6	−5.5%
10	Sporting CP	34	74	73.5	+0.5	−9.2%
11	Famalicao	34	44	43.6	+0.4	−13.1%
12	Estoril	34	35	37.9	−2.9	−18.3%
13	Portimonense	34	34	37.0	−3.0	−22.5%
14	Vizela	34	40	43.4	−3.4	−23.4%
15	Gil Vicente	34	37	40.6	−3.6	+11.3%
16	Pacos Ferreira	34	23	33.8	−10.8	−43.5%
17	Maritimo	34	26	36.8	−10.8	−32.1%
18	Santa Clara	34	22	36.6	−14.6	−63.5%