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Portugal · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 18 May 2024

Primeira Liga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Guimaraes 34 63 49.8
+13.2
+41.2%
2 Sporting CP 34 90 77.9
+12.1
+11.6%
3 Moreirense 34 55 43.2
+11.8
+16.5%
4 Sporting de Braga 34 68 64.0
+4.0
−4.3%
5 Benfica 34 80 76.5
+3.5
+0.8%
6 Arouca 34 46 42.5
+3.5
+12.4%
7 Farense 34 37 36.5
+0.5
−10.8%
8 Casa Pia 34 38 37.9
+0.1
+3.9%
9 Portimonense 34 32 32.6
−0.6
−18.7%
10 Famalicao 34 42 42.9
−0.9
−6.3%
11 Rio Ave 34 37 39.4
−2.4
−57.8%
12 Porto 34 72 74.8
−2.8
−8.6%
13 Gil Vicente 34 36 39.4
−3.4
−33.2%
14 Boavista 34 32 37.7
−5.7
−23.6%
15 Estrela 34 33 38.8
−5.8
−51.1%
16 Estoril 34 33 39.9
−6.9
+11.3%
17 Chaves 34 23 32.7
−9.7
−53.5%
18 Vizela 34 26 37.7
−11.7
−55.5%