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Portugal · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 17 May 2025

Primeira Liga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Estoril 34 46 35.8
+10.2
+10.3%
2 Santa Clara 34 57 48.4
+8.6
+41.3%
3 Sporting de Braga 34 66 58.5
+7.5
+17.4%
4 Casa Pia 34 45 39.9
+5.1
+25.6%
5 Sporting CP 34 82 78.3
+3.7
−3.2%
6 Famalicao 34 47 44.2
+2.8
−11.2%
7 Rio Ave 34 38 36.8
+1.2
−27.7%
8 Benfica 34 80 79.1
+0.9
−4.1%
9 Porto 34 71 71.2
−0.2
−10.7%
10 Moreirense 34 40 41.2
−1.2
−3.3%
11 Guimaraes 34 54 55.7
−1.7
−21.1%
12 Arouca 34 38 40.5
−2.5
−36.2%
13 Nacional 34 34 37.3
−3.3
−15.1%
14 Estrela 34 29 34.8
−5.8
−30.9%
15 Boavista 34 24 29.9
−5.9
−23.7%
16 Gil Vicente 34 34 40.5
−6.5
−29.4%
17 AVS 34 27 33.6
−6.6
−47.5%
18 Farense 34 27 35.5
−8.5
−38.4%