Portugal · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 16 May 2026

Primeira Liga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Porto	34	88	74.8	+13.2	+16.5%
2	Moreirense	34	43	37.1	+5.9	−7.3%
3	Arouca	34	42	36.6	+5.4	−4.2%
4	Famalicao	34	56	52.2	+3.8	−17.5%
5	Benfica	34	80	76.2	+3.8	−8.5%
6	Sporting CP	34	82	78.2	+3.8	−9.8%
7	Rio Ave	34	36	34.6	+1.4	−28.4%
8	Gil Vicente	34	50	48.7	+1.3	−6.2%
9	Alverca	34	39	37.8	+1.2	−27.4%
10	Estoril	34	39	41.1	−2.1	−17.9%
11	Guimaraes	34	42	44.9	−2.9	−23.2%
12	Sporting de Braga	34	59	62.0	−3.0	−30.3%
13	Estrela	34	30	34.2	−4.2	−38.2%
14	Casa Pia	34	30	34.9	−4.9	−16.2%
15	Nacional	34	34	39.2	−5.2	−24.7%
16	AVS	34	21	28.0	−7.0	−45.3%
17	Tondela	34	28	36.5	−8.5	−41.2%
18	Santa Clara	34	36	45.9	−9.9	−44.4%