Belgium · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 18 Apr 2021

Pro League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Waregem	34	46	36.3	+9.7	+35.9%
2	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	34	45	38.0	+7.0	+23.6%
3	Antwerp	34	60	53.3	+6.7	+27.0%
4	Oostende	34	53	47.0	+6.0	+3.7%
5	Beerschot VA	34	47	41.1	+5.9	+28.5%
6	Waasland-Beveren	34	31	27.4	+3.6	+14.1%
7	Club Brugge	34	76	73.3	+2.7	+2.2%
8	Eupen	34	43	42.9	+0.1	−17.6%
9	Genk	34	56	56.2	−0.2	−7.3%
10	Mouscron	34	31	32.2	−1.2	−16.3%
11	Anderlecht	34	58	59.4	−1.4	−11.5%
12	Sint-Truiden	34	38	40.0	−2.0	−11.1%
13	Mechelen	34	48	50.6	−2.6	−26.1%
14	Kortrijk	34	39	41.8	−2.8	+9.1%
15	Cercle Brugge	34	36	39.7	−3.7	−11.2%
16	Standard	34	50	53.9	−3.9	−20.9%
17	Gent	34	49	57.8	−8.8	−15.0%
18	Charleroi	34	42	51.3	−9.3	−22.6%