Belgium · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 10 Apr 2022

Pro League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Union Saint-Gilloise	34	77	64.1	+12.9	+27.6%
2	Antwerp	34	63	50.5	+12.5	+35.2%
3	Sint-Truiden	34	51	41.3	+9.7	+40.5%
4	Charleroi	34	54	46.7	+7.3	+10.6%
5	Mechelen	34	52	45.4	+6.6	+16.6%
6	Club Brugge	34	72	69.6	+2.4	−7.5%
7	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	34	41	39.6	+1.4	−13.3%
8	Waregem	34	32	30.8	+1.2	−21.5%
9	Oostende	34	37	36.0	+1.0	−0.7%
10	Anderlecht	34	64	65.1	−1.1	−19.6%
11	Cercle Brugge	34	45	46.6	−1.6	−13.2%
12	Gent	34	62	63.7	−1.7	−6.0%
13	Kortrijk	34	37	39.0	−2.0	−28.9%
14	Seraing	34	28	33.0	−5.0	−20.9%
15	Eupen	34	32	38.4	−6.4	−33.9%
16	Standard	34	36	43.3	−7.3	−39.1%
17	Genk	34	51	58.6	−7.6	−28.8%
18	Beerschot VA	34	16	32.7	−16.7	−64.3%