Belgium · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 23 Apr 2023

Pro League: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Antwerp	34	72	57.6	+14.4	+29.1%
2	Genk	34	75	61.3	+13.7	+24.1%
3	Union Saint-Gilloise	34	75	62.7	+12.3	+17.4%
4	Standard	34	55	45.4	+9.6	+34.7%
5	Oud-Heverlee Leuven	34	48	41.5	+6.5	+2.6%
6	Westerlo	34	51	47.8	+3.2	+11.0%
7	Charleroi	34	48	45.4	+2.6	+11.2%
8	Cercle Brugge	34	50	48.4	+1.6	−8.8%
9	Sint-Truiden	34	42	43.2	−1.2	−28.6%
10	Mechelen	34	40	42.3	−2.3	−13.5%
11	Kortrijk	34	31	34.1	−3.1	−5.9%
12	Gent	34	56	60.4	−4.4	−13.5%
13	Club Brugge	34	59	63.8	−4.8	−22.3%
14	Seraing	34	20	25.7	−5.7	−29.7%
15	Eupen	34	28	34.7	−6.7	−21.8%
16	Waregem	34	27	35.6	−8.6	−37.2%
17	Oostende	34	27	35.6	−8.6	+2.6%
18	Anderlecht	34	46	57.3	−11.3	−32.3%