Romania · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 12 Aug 2020

Superliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Astra	34	57	42.4	+14.6	+48.5%
2	Universitatea Craiova	35	67	58.1	+8.9	+19.3%
3	CFR Cluj	36	75	69.0	+6.0	+1.3%
4	Academica Clinceni	39	43	37.0	+6.0	−7.2%
5	FC Botosani	36	54	51.1	+2.9	−4.6%
6	FC Hermannstadt	38	47	46.8	+0.2	−29.0%
7	Gaz Metan Medias	36	46	46.6	−0.6	−29.7%
8	Mioveni	2	1	2.3	−1.3	−100.0%
9	Chindia Targoviste	40	39	41.9	−2.9	−20.7%
10	Sepsi Sfântu Gheorghe	38	47	50.2	−3.2	−20.2%
11	FC Voluntari	40	41	45.1	−4.1	−19.5%
12	Dinamo Bucuresti	35	42	47.8	−5.8	−12.8%
13	Viitorul Constanta	40	63	69.1	−6.1	−28.5%
14	Poli Iasi	40	41	47.2	−6.2	−23.4%
15	FCSB	35	53	60.3	−7.3	−17.7%