Romania · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 24 May 2025

Superliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	FCSB	40	80	71.6	+8.4	+1.2%
2	FC Hermannstadt	39	56	49.5	+6.5	+9.0%
3	Dinamo Bucuresti	40	56	50.2	+5.8	−17.4%
4	Universitatea Cluj	40	65	60.5	+4.5	+5.0%
5	CFR Cluj	40	70	68.6	+1.4	−14.8%
6	Petrolul	39	51	49.9	+1.1	−20.7%
7	Poli Iasi	39	43	42.0	+1.0	−5.1%
8	UTA Arad	39	48	47.5	+0.5	+4.0%
9	Otelul	39	51	51.6	−0.6	−7.7%
10	Unirea Slobozia	39	40	40.6	−0.6	−11.0%
11	Universitatea Craiova	40	66	68.4	−2.4	−18.9%
12	FC Rapid Bucuresti	40	56	60.2	−4.2	−33.4%
13	FC Botosani	39	44	48.9	−4.9	−13.8%
14	Farul Constanta	39	48	53.7	−5.7	−29.2%
15	Gloria Buzau	39	27	35.5	−8.5	−31.0%
16	Sepsi Sfântu Gheorghe	39	46	57.7	−11.7	−36.4%