Romania · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 1 Jun 2026

Superliga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Universitatea Cluj	40	73	59.6	+13.4	+34.8%
2	Universitatea Craiova	40	80	70.1	+9.9	+4.6%
3	UTA Arad	39	60	50.2	+9.8	+8.4%
4	Csikszereda M. Ciuc	39	49	39.3	+9.7	+9.5%
5	FC Arges	40	57	49.4	+7.6	+29.3%
6	CFR Cluj	40	69	63.0	+6.0	+3.9%
7	Otelul	39	55	53.2	+1.8	+1.6%
8	FC Botosani	40	55	53.7	+1.3	−12.1%
9	Chindia Targoviste	2	2	1.4	+0.6	−100.0%
10	FC Voluntari	2	3	2.5	+0.5	+20.0%
11	Dinamo Bucuresti	41	66	66.2	−0.2	−19.6%
12	FC Rapid Bucuresti	40	62	63.4	−1.4	−18.5%
13	Unirea Slobozia	39	34	37.2	−3.2	−14.2%
14	Metaloglobus Bucharest	39	22	28.2	−6.2	−30.2%
15	Petrolul	39	41	49.3	−8.3	−36.4%
16	Farul Constanta	41	45	58.6	−13.6	−24.5%
17	FCSB	41	62	76.5	−14.5	−29.3%
18	FC Hermannstadt	41	39	53.6	−14.6	−44.5%