Scotland · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 19 May 2024

Premiership: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Hearts	38	68	54.0	+14.0	+46.1%
2	Kilmarnock	38	56	49.0	+7.0	+11.7%
3	Celtic	38	93	89.0	+4.0	+2.1%
4	St Mirren	38	47	45.2	+1.8	−5.7%
5	Dundee	38	42	41.8	+0.2	−34.0%
6	St Johnstone	38	35	36.4	−1.4	−18.8%
7	Rangers	38	85	86.6	−1.6	−10.3%
8	Motherwell	38	43	44.6	−1.6	+8.7%
9	Ross County	38	35	39.2	−4.2	−9.8%
10	Aberdeen	38	48	52.7	−4.7	−12.6%
11	Hibernian	38	46	54.6	−8.6	−40.8%
12	Livingston	38	25	35.8	−10.8	−56.4%