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Spain · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 7 Aug 2020

Segunda División: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Lugo 42 52 44.2
+7.8
+6.3%
2 Cádiz 42 69 61.8
+7.2
+10.0%
3 Elche 42 61 54.0
+7.0
+23.2%
4 Mirandes 42 56 50.8
+5.2
+3.7%
5 Fuenlabrada 42 60 55.5
+4.5
+6.9%
6 Alcorcon 42 57 53.2
+3.8
+2.4%
7 Almería 42 64 61.4
+2.6
−1.3%
8 Las Palmas 42 57 54.8
+2.2
−14.9%
9 Huesca 42 70 68.1
+1.9
+2.6%
10 Zaragoza 42 65 64.3
+0.7
+1.1%
11 Albacete 42 52 51.6
+0.4
+11.9%
12 Numancia 42 50 52.3
−2.3
−12.8%
13 Ponferradina 42 51 53.4
−2.4
−13.4%
14 Tenerife 42 55 57.5
−2.5
−10.6%
15 Real Oviedo 42 53 56.7
−3.7
−16.0%
16 Málaga 42 53 56.9
−3.9
−27.6%
17 Girona 42 63 67.9
−4.9
−20.0%
18 Sporting de Gijón 42 54 60.1
−6.1
−22.7%
19 Extremadura UD 42 43 49.3
−6.3
−15.8%
20 Deportivo 42 51 57.6
−6.6
−20.7%
21 Rayo Vallecano 42 60 66.9
−6.9
−33.3%
22 Racing de Santander 42 33 46.3
−13.3
−46.1%