Spain · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 30 May 2021

Segunda División: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Mallorca	42	82	68.4	+13.6	+21.4%
2	Girona	42	71	58.4	+12.6	+30.6%
3	Almería	42	73	63.8	+9.2	+22.1%
4	Ponferradina	42	57	49.2	+7.8	+17.9%
5	Leganés	42	73	66.9	+6.1	+7.2%
6	Las Palmas	42	56	51.3	+4.7	+8.4%
7	Málaga	42	53	48.3	+4.7	+7.2%
8	Espanyol	42	82	78.5	+3.5	−4.6%
9	Sporting de Gijón	42	65	62.9	+2.1	−6.2%
10	Mirandes	42	54	52.7	+1.3	+7.6%
11	Rayo Vallecano	42	67	68.0	−1.0	+2.4%
12	Sabadell	42	46	47.8	−1.8	−4.2%
13	Cartagena	42	49	51.2	−2.2	−12.6%
14	Lugo	42	47	49.2	−2.2	−13.0%
15	Fuenlabrada	42	54	56.4	−2.4	−17.6%
16	Logrones	42	44	47.4	−3.4	−14.0%
17	Alcorcon	42	49	52.5	−3.5	−15.3%
18	Castellon	42	41	46.1	−5.1	−15.6%
19	Albacete	42	38	45.3	−7.3	−18.1%
20	Zaragoza	42	48	55.3	−7.3	−26.8%
21	Real Oviedo	42	52	60.0	−8.0	−35.9%
22	Tenerife	42	52	60.6	−8.6	−26.2%