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Spain · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 29 May 2022

Segunda División: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Eibar 42 80 65.5
+14.5
+28.3%
2 Almería 42 81 71.7
+9.3
+13.1%
3 Ponferradina 42 63 53.9
+9.1
+18.9%
4 Burgos 42 55 46.4
+8.6
+26.1%
5 Real Valladolid 42 81 73.2
+7.8
+10.6%
6 Real Oviedo 42 68 60.3
+7.7
+1.2%
7 Las Palmas 42 70 62.9
+7.1
+7.4%
8 Cartagena 42 60 53.9
+6.1
+15.3%
9 Tenerife 42 69 64.2
+4.8
+19.7%
10 Girona 42 68 64.3
+3.7
+3.0%
11 Mirandes 42 52 50.4
+1.6
−2.6%
12 Lugo 42 50 48.4
+1.6
−37.6%
13 Zaragoza 42 56 57.6
−1.6
−22.9%
14 Ibiza 42 52 54.2
−2.2
−16.2%
15 Amorebieta 42 43 48.2
−5.2
−37.4%
16 Huesca 42 54 60.0
−6.0
−25.5%
17 Málaga 42 45 51.8
−6.8
−20.2%
18 Leganés 42 54 60.9
−6.9
−23.2%
19 Real Sociedad B 42 40 49.1
−9.1
−15.9%
20 Sporting de Gijón 42 46 58.5
−12.5
−36.3%
21 Alcorcon 42 29 44.0
−15.0
−41.6%
22 Fuenlabrada 42 33 49.8
−16.8
−58.6%