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Spain · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 28 May 2023

Segunda División: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Granada 42 75 66.7
+8.3
+4.6%
2 Albacete 42 67 59.2
+7.8
+7.0%
3 Alavés 42 71 65.3
+5.7
−2.4%
4 Eibar 42 71 65.8
+5.2
−3.3%
5 Las Palmas 42 72 68.1
+3.9
−5.6%
6 Burgos 42 54 50.2
+3.8
+0.8%
7 Real Oviedo 42 59 55.9
+3.1
+11.1%
8 Mirandes 42 52 49.1
+2.9
−4.5%
9 Cartagena 42 58 56.3
+1.7
+8.9%
10 Racing de Santander 42 54 52.4
+1.6
+9.6%
11 Andorra 42 59 57.9
+1.1
+3.3%
12 Huesca 42 52 51.4
+0.6
−30.4%
13 Levante 42 72 71.9
+0.1
−16.7%
14 Villarreal B 42 50 50.8
−0.8
−12.5%
15 Ponferradina 42 44 46.5
−2.5
−32.5%
16 Leganés 42 53 57.6
−4.6
−17.3%
17 Tenerife 42 57 63.1
−6.1
−30.1%
18 Zaragoza 42 53 60.4
−7.4
−29.3%
19 Málaga 42 44 52.5
−8.5
−38.9%
20 Sporting de Gijón 42 50 58.5
−8.5
−40.1%
21 Lugo 42 31 41.1
−10.1
−37.4%
22 Ibiza 42 34 45.2
−11.2
−43.8%