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Spain · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 2 Jun 2024

Segunda División: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Leganés 42 74 60.0
+14.0
+23.7%
2 Racing de Santander 42 64 56.8
+7.2
+7.7%
3 Real Valladolid 42 72 65.4
+6.6
+2.6%
4 Sporting de Gijón 42 65 59.8
+5.2
+5.5%
5 Ferrol 42 59 54.2
+4.8
+9.0%
6 Cartagena 42 51 47.3
+3.7
+8.6%
7 Burgos 42 59 55.8
+3.2
+2.4%
8 Espanyol 42 69 66.8
+2.2
−16.0%
9 Eibar 42 71 69.3
+1.7
+0.7%
10 Amorebieta 42 45 43.3
+1.7
−0.8%
11 Real Oviedo 42 64 62.7
+1.3
−3.8%
12 Eldense 42 50 50.0
0.0
−8.1%
13 Levante 42 59 59.1
−0.1
−23.9%
14 Mirandes 42 49 49.4
−0.4
−13.7%
15 Villarreal B 42 43 46.2
−3.2
−8.4%
16 Huesca 42 49 52.2
−3.2
−20.2%
17 Tenerife 42 56 59.5
−3.5
−9.5%
18 Alcorcon 42 44 47.8
−3.8
−4.5%
19 Zaragoza 42 51 57.9
−6.9
−24.5%
20 Elche 42 59 66.2
−7.2
−19.5%
21 Albacete 42 51 62.0
−11.0
−37.2%
22 Andorra 42 43 56.3
−13.3
−37.9%