Spain · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 1 Jun 2025

Segunda División: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Mirandes	42	75	55.9	+19.1	+39.9%
2	Levante	42	79	64.7	+14.3	+19.8%
3	Huesca	42	64	53.5	+10.5	+30.0%
4	Real Oviedo	42	75	64.5	+10.5	+6.8%
5	Elche	42	77	67.1	+9.9	+7.1%
6	Racing de Santander	42	71	62.0	+9.0	+15.4%
7	Albacete	42	58	54.3	+3.7	−8.4%
8	Málaga	42	53	49.8	+3.2	−23.6%
9	Burgos	42	55	52.1	+2.9	−4.7%
10	Granada	42	65	63.0	+2.0	−3.1%
11	Eibar	42	58	58.1	−0.1	−17.2%
12	Almería	42	69	70.5	−1.5	−12.9%
13	Cádiz	42	55	58.1	−3.1	−12.1%
14	Sporting de Gijón	42	56	59.3	−3.3	−21.6%
15	Cordoba	42	55	58.5	−3.5	−15.4%
16	Deportivo	42	53	58.7	−5.7	−19.0%
17	Eldense	42	45	51.3	−6.3	−20.1%
18	Zaragoza	42	51	59.6	−8.6	−23.8%
19	Castellon	42	53	62.2	−9.2	−24.2%
20	Cartagena	42	23	34.4	−11.4	−32.8%
21	Ferrol	42	30	42.1	−12.1	−39.4%
22	Tenerife	42	36	52.6	−16.6	−52.2%