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Spain · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 31 May 2026

Segunda División: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations
1 Racing de Santander 42 82 65.3
+16.7
+33.2%
2 Málaga 42 73 58.6
+14.4
+26.4%
3 Burgos 42 72 57.8
+14.2
+24.4%
4 Ceuta 42 61 48.6
+12.4
+20.6%
5 Deportivo 42 77 66.2
+10.8
+9.3%
6 Las Palmas 42 73 66.1
+6.9
+2.8%
7 Almería 42 74 68.7
+5.3
+0.8%
8 Albacete 42 59 54.0
+5.0
+21.2%
9 Eibar 42 67 62.3
+4.7
−6.7%
10 Real Sociedad B 42 47 43.2
+3.8
+3.6%
11 Andorra 42 58 55.8
+2.2
+12.6%
12 Sporting de Gijón 42 61 59.8
+1.2
+2.1%
13 Cordoba 42 61 61.8
−0.8
+1.3%
14 Castellon 42 72 73.6
−1.6
−11.9%
15 Mirandes 42 40 46.0
−6.0
−27.3%
16 Granada 42 48 54.2
−6.2
−25.3%
17 Cádiz 42 43 49.8
−6.8
−25.9%
18 Leganés 42 46 56.3
−10.3
−38.0%
19 Cultural Leonesa 42 37 47.9
−10.9
−17.3%
20 Huesca 42 38 49.5
−11.5
−46.9%
21 Real Valladolid 42 46 60.4
−14.4
−37.8%
22 Zaragoza 42 36 52.0
−16.0
−38.8%