Italy · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 2 Aug 2020

Serie A: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Parma	38	49	38.7	+10.3	+50.1%
2	Lazio	38	78	69.7	+8.3	+9.8%
3	Inter	38	82	74.6	+7.4	+6.4%
4	Verona	38	49	42.9	+6.1	−13.0%
5	Sassuolo	38	51	44.9	+6.1	+6.3%
6	Atalanta	38	78	72.6	+5.4	−0.7%
7	Roma	38	70	65.8	+4.2	+0.5%
8	Cagliari	38	45	41.0	+4.0	+36.1%
9	Juventus	38	83	79.5	+3.5	+4.0%
10	Milan	38	66	62.7	+3.3	−3.2%
11	Udinese	38	45	43.7	+1.3	+3.0%
12	Lecce	38	35	34.4	+0.6	+23.8%
13	Sampdoria	38	42	43.3	−1.3	−18.5%
14	Bologna	38	47	49.3	−2.3	+6.1%
15	Genoa	38	39	43.7	−4.7	−25.0%
16	Fiorentina	38	49	55.4	−6.4	−25.7%
17	Torino	38	40	47.2	−7.2	−12.2%
18	Brescia	38	25	32.8	−7.8	−45.9%
19	Napoli	38	62	71.6	−9.6	−18.6%
20	Spal	38	20	33.9	−13.9	−15.7%