Italy · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 23 May 2021

Serie A: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Inter	38	91	78.8	+12.2	+9.4%
2	Milan	38	79	66.9	+12.1	+31.1%
3	Sassuolo	38	62	51.7	+10.3	+10.2%
4	Sampdoria	38	52	44.8	+7.2	+28.1%
5	Genoa	38	42	36.3	+5.7	−17.1%
6	Napoli	38	77	71.7	+5.3	+10.2%
7	Lazio	38	68	63.6	+4.4	+6.9%
8	Spezia	38	39	36.0	+3.0	+4.6%
9	Atalanta	38	78	75.5	+2.5	−4.9%
10	Juventus	38	78	78.8	−0.8	−9.9%
11	Roma	38	63	64.9	−1.9	−19.6%
12	Verona	38	43	45.3	−2.3	−16.7%
13	Cagliari	38	37	39.4	−2.4	−35.0%
14	Benevento	38	33	36.3	−3.3	+7.2%
15	Bologna	38	41	45.8	−4.8	−38.8%
16	Udinese	38	40	48.1	−8.1	−32.6%
17	Torino	38	37	45.7	−8.7	−52.4%
18	Crotone	38	23	31.9	−8.9	−49.7%
19	Fiorentina	38	40	50.3	−10.3	−29.7%
20	Parma	38	20	36.5	−16.5	−71.3%