Italy · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 2 Jun 2024

Serie A: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Inter	38	94	80.1	+13.9	+22.0%
2	Bologna	38	68	55.6	+12.4	+12.8%
3	Milan	38	75	68.3	+6.7	+5.5%
4	Genoa	38	49	44.4	+4.6	−13.7%
5	Atalanta	38	69	65.4	+3.6	+0.5%
6	Lazio	38	61	57.8	+3.2	+10.5%
7	Juventus	38	71	67.8	+3.2	−6.0%
8	Roma	38	63	61.0	+2.0	−10.9%
9	Monza	38	45	43.6	+1.4	−22.1%
10	Fiorentina	38	60	58.9	+1.1	+3.4%
11	Verona	38	38	38.7	−0.7	−30.3%
12	Torino	38	53	54.1	−1.1	−20.0%
13	Empoli	38	36	37.4	−1.4	+5.2%
14	Lecce	38	38	41.3	−3.3	−42.9%
15	Cagliari	38	36	39.7	−3.7	−38.2%
16	Frosinone	38	35	39.9	−4.9	−44.6%
17	Udinese	38	37	44.5	−7.5	−22.7%
18	Sassuolo	38	30	42.7	−12.7	−19.9%
19	Salernitana	38	17	30.9	−13.9	−76.9%
20	Napoli	38	53	68.0	−15.0	−42.6%