Italy · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 24 May 2026

Serie A: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Napoli	38	76	67.8	+8.2	+12.7%
2	Inter	38	87	79.6	+7.4	+5.2%
3	Parma	38	45	37.6	+7.4	+11.3%
4	Roma	38	73	65.6	+7.4	+4.0%
5	Udinese	38	50	43.2	+6.8	+50.0%
6	Como	38	71	64.6	+6.4	+1.9%
7	Sassuolo	38	49	43.6	+5.4	+24.2%
8	Cagliari	38	43	38.4	+4.6	+23.3%
9	Torino	38	45	42.8	+2.2	−3.8%
10	Lazio	38	54	52.1	+1.9	+1.5%
11	Bologna	38	56	54.2	+1.8	+9.2%
12	Lecce	38	38	36.6	+1.4	−18.7%
13	Milan	38	70	70.3	−0.3	−0.8%
14	Cremonese	38	34	35.4	−1.4	−10.2%
15	Genoa	38	41	44.3	−3.3	−27.6%
16	Juventus	38	69	73.6	−4.6	−17.7%
17	Atalanta	38	59	65.6	−6.6	−25.8%
18	Fiorentina	38	42	51.9	−9.9	−26.2%
19	Verona	38	21	36.3	−15.3	−59.0%
20	Pisa	38	18	34.5	−16.5	−87.2%