Italy · Season 2020-21 · Data up to 10 May 2021

Serie B: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Salernitana	37	66	47.5	+18.5	+29.2%
2	Empoli	38	73	61.5	+11.5	+3.6%
3	Brescia	38	56	51.0	+5.0	+8.7%
4	Venezia	38	59	55.2	+3.8	−6.1%
5	Ascoli	38	44	42.1	+1.9	−4.4%
6	Pisa	38	48	47.5	+0.5	−9.5%
7	Cittadella	38	57	56.6	+0.4	−3.4%
8	Spal	38	56	56.0	0.0	−11.1%
9	Reggina	38	50	50.6	−0.6	−18.6%
10	Lecce	38	62	62.8	−0.8	−11.2%
11	Vicenza	38	48	48.9	−0.9	−16.9%
12	Monza	38	64	65.2	−1.2	−8.1%
13	Chievo	38	56	60.0	−4.0	−25.7%
14	Frosinone	38	50	54.1	−4.1	−24.7%
15	Reggiana	37	34	38.7	−4.7	−13.3%
16	Cremonese	38	48	53.3	−5.3	−30.8%
17	Pordenone	38	45	50.3	−5.3	−35.3%
18	Cosenza	38	35	43.0	−8.0	−47.4%
19	Pescara	38	32	43.2	−11.2	−39.5%
20	Virtus Entella	38	23	38.4	−15.4	−65.8%