Italy · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 6 May 2022

Serie B: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Ascoli	38	65	47.2	+17.8	+47.2%
2	Pisa	38	67	55.1	+11.9	+22.2%
3	Cremonese	38	69	60.6	+8.4	+10.2%
4	Monza	38	67	59.9	+7.1	−0.2%
5	Lecce	38	71	65.6	+5.4	−6.8%
6	Brescia	38	66	60.9	+5.1	+0.5%
7	Reggina	38	48	43.3	+4.7	+3.9%
8	Como	38	47	43.0	+4.0	+9.2%
9	Perugia	38	58	54.7	+3.3	−3.7%
10	Benevento	38	63	60.3	+2.7	−1.7%
11	Ternana	38	54	51.6	+2.4	+1.8%
12	Cittadella	38	52	50.4	+1.6	+2.7%
13	Cosenza	38	35	37.1	−2.1	−37.3%
14	Frosinone	38	58	60.6	−2.6	−16.3%
15	Spal	38	42	48.9	−6.9	−31.5%
16	Parma	38	49	57.0	−8.0	−36.8%
17	Alessandria	38	34	44.3	−10.3	−32.4%
18	Vicenza	38	34	45.1	−11.1	−33.0%
19	Pordenone	38	18	38.3	−20.3	−65.7%
20	Crotone	38	26	48.4	−22.4	−71.9%