Italy · Season 2024-25 · Data up to 13 May 2025

Serie B: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Sassuolo	38	82	64.3	+17.7	+22.8%
2	Pisa	38	74	58.7	+15.3	+33.2%
3	Juve Stabia	38	55	48.2	+6.8	+4.2%
4	Catanzaro	38	53	47.9	+5.1	−13.3%
5	Spezia	38	66	62.0	+4.0	−6.3%
6	Mantova	38	44	43.4	+0.6	−27.7%
7	Carrarese	38	45	44.6	+0.4	−17.9%
8	Sudtirol	38	46	46.6	−0.6	−2.1%
9	Cesena	38	53	54.2	−1.2	−10.7%
10	Cittadella	38	40	41.2	−1.2	+5.8%
11	Reggiana	38	44	46.2	−2.2	−4.6%
12	Cremonese	38	61	64.2	−3.2	−10.4%
13	Bari	38	48	51.6	−3.6	−31.0%
14	Brescia	38	43	47.1	−4.1	−20.9%
15	Frosinone	38	43	48.3	−5.3	−29.7%
16	Palermo	38	52	57.6	−5.6	−11.2%
17	Salernitana	38	42	49.6	−7.6	−29.8%
18	Modena	38	45	53.0	−8.0	−34.1%
19	Cosenza	38	34	44.0	−10.0	−42.4%
20	Sampdoria	38	41	53.4	−12.4	−50.6%