Italy · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 8 May 2026

Serie B: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Frosinone	38	81	58.1	+22.9	+26.3%
2	Venezia	38	82	71.1	+10.9	+2.9%
3	Monza	38	76	66.5	+9.5	+8.6%
4	Catanzaro	38	59	50.0	+9.0	+2.7%
5	Palermo	38	72	65.1	+6.9	−8.3%
6	Padova	38	46	41.9	+4.1	+17.7%
7	Avellino	38	49	46.6	+2.4	−7.4%
8	Mantova	38	46	44.0	+2.0	−5.1%
9	Juve Stabia	38	51	51.0	0.0	−29.2%
10	Bari	38	40	42.4	−2.4	−13.2%
11	Reggiana	38	37	39.6	−2.6	−18.8%
12	Carrarese	38	44	48.1	−4.1	−29.0%
13	Virtus Entella	38	42	47.8	−5.8	−28.0%
14	Modena	38	55	61.1	−6.1	−18.6%
15	Pescara	38	35	41.6	−6.6	−48.9%
16	Sampdoria	38	44	51.4	−7.4	−27.4%
17	Cesena	38	46	54.5	−8.5	−22.9%
18	Empoli	38	41	49.5	−8.5	−37.9%
19	Sudtirol	38	41	50.2	−9.2	−52.1%
20	Spezia	38	35	51.3	−16.3	−45.3%