Turkey · Season 2019-20 · Data up to 26 Jul 2020

Süper Lig: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Başakşehir	34	69	60.0	+9.0	+4.0%
2	Trabzonspor	34	65	56.9	+8.1	+6.9%
3	Sivasspor	34	60	52.1	+7.9	+8.6%
4	Gaziantep	34	46	38.4	+7.6	−4.8%
5	Antalyaspor	34	45	40.3	+4.7	+13.4%
6	Besiktas	34	62	58.6	+3.4	+2.4%
7	Kasimpasa	34	43	41.2	+1.8	−5.6%
8	Alanyaspor	34	57	56.6	+0.4	−15.3%
9	Ankaragucu	34	32	32.2	−0.2	−6.3%
10	Kayserispor	34	32	32.8	−0.8	−9.0%
11	Göztepe	34	42	44.3	−2.3	−6.3%
12	Denizlispor	34	35	39.1	−4.1	−3.2%
13	Galatasaray	34	56	60.5	−4.5	−23.3%
14	Rizespor	34	35	40.9	−5.9	−12.6%
15	Konyaspor	34	36	41.9	−5.9	−27.1%
16	Genclerbirligi	34	36	42.4	−6.4	−30.2%
17	Fenerbahce	34	53	60.3	−7.3	−23.2%
18	Yeni Malatyaspor	34	32	42.6	−10.6	−23.8%