Turkey · Season 2022-23 · Data up to 7 Jun 2023

Süper Lig: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Galatasaray	34	82	67.3	+14.7	+26.5%
2	Besiktas	34	72	60.5	+11.5	+17.9%
3	Adana Demirspor	34	63	51.6	+11.4	+7.8%
4	Fenerbahce	34	74	66.7	+7.3	+6.8%
5	Başakşehir	34	56	50.6	+5.4	+5.1%
6	Karagumruk	34	45	40.6	+4.4	−15.5%
7	Kayserispor	34	44	39.6	+4.4	+14.1%
8	Istanbulspor	34	35	33.0	+2.0	+8.4%
9	Hatayspor	21	23	22.3	+0.7	+3.5%
10	Gaziantep	22	25	26.5	−1.5	−16.0%
11	Konyaspor	34	45	47.7	−2.7	−20.4%
12	Kasimpasa	35	40	43.3	−3.3	−15.9%
13	Trabzonspor	35	54	57.8	−3.8	−17.3%
14	Giresunspor	34	34	39.2	−5.2	−16.2%
15	Sivasspor	35	38	43.9	−5.9	−12.8%
16	Ankaragucu	35	39	44.9	−5.9	−27.1%
17	Alanyaspor	34	35	43.6	−8.6	−37.0%
18	Antalyaspor	35	38	47.2	−9.2	−37.4%
19	Umraniyespor	34	24	34.9	−10.9	−41.9%