Turkey · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 26 May 2024

Süper Lig: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Galatasaray	38	102	82.4	+19.6	+23.3%
2	Fenerbahce	38	99	84.8	+14.2	+16.1%
3	Sivasspor	38	54	45.0	+9.0	+9.2%
4	Kasimpasa	38	56	47.4	+8.6	+17.1%
5	Başakşehir	38	61	52.6	+8.4	+4.8%
6	Trabzonspor	38	67	60.4	+6.6	+26.5%
7	Alanyaspor	38	52	48.5	+3.5	−14.7%
8	Rizespor	38	50	48.5	+1.5	−14.5%
9	Gaziantep	38	44	44.2	−0.2	−9.0%
10	Kayserispor	38	45	45.6	−0.6	−18.5%
11	Antalyaspor	38	49	52.3	−3.3	−27.9%
12	Hatayspor	38	41	44.5	−3.5	−23.8%
13	Konyaspor	38	41	47.1	−6.1	−37.5%
14	Pendikspor	38	37	43.4	−6.4	−38.1%
15	Besiktas	38	56	64.3	−8.3	−23.8%
16	Samsunspor	38	43	51.7	−8.7	−36.6%
17	Ankaragucu	38	40	49.1	−9.1	−46.6%
18	Adana Demirspor	38	44	53.1	−9.1	−48.5%
19	Karagumruk	38	40	49.4	−9.4	−39.9%
20	Istanbulspor	38	19	31.4	−12.4	−50.9%