Turkey · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 17 May 2026

Süper Lig: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Trabzonspor	34	69	54.0	+15.0	+27.3%
2	Başakşehir	34	57	51.7	+5.3	−9.0%
3	Galatasaray	34	77	73.0	+4.0	−1.0%
4	Göztepe	34	55	51.2	+3.8	−17.0%
5	Fenerbahce	34	74	70.4	+3.6	−7.5%
6	Samsunspor	34	51	47.5	+3.5	−4.4%
7	Eyupspor	34	33	34.4	−1.4	−21.5%
8	Besiktas	34	60	61.5	−1.5	−15.4%
9	Gaziantep	34	37	39.3	−2.3	−36.5%
10	Antalyaspor	34	32	34.8	−2.8	−26.0%
11	Genclerbirligi	34	34	37.5	−3.5	−10.3%
12	Konyaspor	34	40	43.5	−3.5	−22.0%
13	Kasimpasa	34	35	38.7	−3.7	−37.1%
14	Karagumruk	34	30	34.2	−4.2	−17.7%
15	Rizespor	34	41	45.9	−4.9	−42.3%
16	Kocaelispor	34	37	42.2	−5.2	−27.0%
17	Alanyaspor	34	37	43.2	−6.2	−46.4%
18	Kayserispor	34	30	38.4	−8.4	−59.2%