Finland · Season 2026 · Data up to 21 Oct 2026

Veikkausliiga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Gnistan	28	42	33.6	+8.4	+13.5%
2	KuPS	28	51	48.2	+2.8	−3.1%
3	Inter Turku	28	52	49.4	+2.6	−6.2%
4	TPS	27	32	30.0	+2.0	−10.1%
5	AC Oulu	28	40	38.2	+1.8	+31.9%
6	VPS	28	39	37.5	+1.5	−8.8%
7	HJK	28	51	50.6	+0.4	−13.7%
8	PK-35	1	1	1.2	−0.2	−100.0%
9	Lahti	27	39	39.5	−0.5	−9.7%
10	Ilves	27	38	40.1	−2.1	−17.5%
11	Mariehamn	27	19	21.9	−2.9	−38.9%
12	Jaro	28	22	29.0	−7.0	−59.4%
13	SJK	27	27	37.3	−10.3	−49.3%