Spain · Season 2021-22 · Data up to 22 May 2022

LaLiga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Real Madrid	38	86	75.8	+10.2	+13.9%
2	Real Betis	38	65	56.1	+8.9	+15.2%
3	Sevilla	38	70	63.0	+7.0	−2.7%
4	Elche	38	42	35.7	+6.3	+16.1%
5	Cádiz	38	39	36.7	+2.3	+25.6%
6	Real Sociedad	38	62	60.7	+1.3	−14.0%
7	Valencia	38	48	46.8	+1.2	−22.4%
8	Osasuna	38	47	46.0	+1.0	−5.6%
9	FC Barcelona	38	73	73.3	−0.3	−2.3%
10	Granada	38	38	39.2	−1.2	−14.1%
11	Atlético de Madrid	38	71	72.5	−1.5	−4.5%
12	Espanyol	38	42	44.2	−2.2	−28.3%
13	Rayo Vallecano	38	42	45.5	−3.5	−6.4%
14	Villarreal	38	59	63.0	−4.0	−16.9%
15	Athletic Club	38	55	59.3	−4.3	−20.4%
16	Mallorca	38	39	43.4	−4.4	−9.2%
17	Getafe	38	39	44.8	−5.8	−37.9%
18	Levante	38	35	41.0	−6.0	−7.3%
19	Celta	38	46	52.9	−6.9	−22.0%
20	Alavés	38	31	38.3	−7.3	−29.6%