Spain · Season 2023-24 · Data up to 26 May 2024

LaLiga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Girona	38	81	60.2	+20.8	+46.6%
2	Real Madrid	38	95	79.6	+15.4	+20.3%
3	FC Barcelona	38	85	76.4	+8.6	+12.0%
4	Real Betis	38	57	50.5	+6.5	−9.0%
5	Atlético de Madrid	38	76	70.0	+6.0	+11.5%
6	Athletic Club	38	68	64.3	+3.7	−4.8%
7	Villarreal	38	53	51.5	+1.5	+8.3%
8	Las Palmas	38	40	38.6	+1.4	−5.1%
9	Alavés	38	46	44.7	+1.3	−11.0%
10	Valencia	38	49	48.5	+0.5	−10.5%
11	Osasuna	38	45	44.6	+0.4	+14.0%
12	Getafe	38	43	43.8	−0.8	−29.1%
13	Real Sociedad	38	60	63.6	−3.6	−15.2%
14	Mallorca	38	40	45.4	−5.4	−42.2%
15	Cádiz	38	33	38.5	−5.5	−53.1%
16	Rayo Vallecano	38	38	46.5	−8.5	−46.5%
17	Celta	38	41	50.3	−9.3	−35.0%
18	Sevilla	38	41	51.2	−10.2	−33.4%
19	Almería	38	21	35.7	−14.7	−68.3%
20	Granada	38	21	36.6	−15.6	−73.5%