Spain · Season 2025-26 · Data up to 24 May 2026

LaLiga: the market vs the results

Which teams are getting more or fewer points than the market expected. Verified statistical context, not predictions.

Points expected by the market

The points each team should get in each match according to the average closing odds. If Madrid have a 68% chance of winning and 20% of drawing against Getafe, they expect 2.24 points (3 × 0.68 + 1 × 0.20); Getafe, 0.56.

Gap

Actual points minus the points expected by the market. In that match, if Madrid win they add +0.76; if they draw, −1.24; if they lose, −2.24. Losing never costs more than the market gave you.

Yield

The result of betting €1 on the team to win in every one of its matches, at the average closing odds.

Sorted by gap, high to low

Above expectationsBelow expectations


1	Villarreal	38	72	59.5	+12.5	+11.5%
2	FC Barcelona	38	94	82.6	+11.4	+14.4%
3	Getafe	38	51	44.1	+6.9	+48.4%
4	Real Madrid	38	86	80.2	+5.8	+5.7%
5	Real Betis	38	60	55.3	+4.7	−6.0%
6	Levante	38	42	39.5	+2.5	−14.9%
7	Valencia	38	49	47.4	+1.6	+0.3%
8	Celta	38	54	52.4	+1.6	+13.3%
9	Rayo Vallecano	38	50	48.5	+1.5	−13.3%
10	Elche	38	43	41.7	+1.3	−36.7%
11	Mallorca	38	42	41.6	+0.4	−10.4%
12	Atlético de Madrid	38	69	68.8	+0.2	+1.6%
13	Espanyol	38	46	46.6	−0.6	−0.5%
14	Alavés	38	43	44.6	−1.6	−10.4%
15	Sevilla	38	43	46.9	−3.9	−3.9%
16	Girona	38	41	45.0	−4.0	−13.7%
17	Real Sociedad	38	46	52.1	−6.1	−31.7%
18	Osasuna	38	42	48.6	−6.6	−24.9%
19	Real Oviedo	38	29	36.1	−7.1	−41.9%
20	Athletic Club	38	45	58.6	−13.6	−31.9%