← 2. Bundesliga 2019-20

Dresden

Season 2019-20 · 34 matches played

Last 5LLLWD

Points

Points expected by the market

37.78

Gap

−5.78

Yield

−28.4%

Market film

Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below

The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.

Performance by odds

Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.

Odds band	Matches playedMP	PointsPts	Expected	Gap	Yield
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches	2	4	3.18	+0.82	+6.0%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	16	17	21.04	−4.04	−37.2%
Underdog 3.50 or more	16	11	13.55	−2.55	−23.8%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches	2	4	3.18	+0.82	+6.0%
Even 2.20 – 3.49	12	15	16.16	−1.16	−16.3%
Underdog 3.50 or more few matches	3	0	2.46	−2.46	−100.0%
Heavy favourite under 1.50	0	—	—	—	—
Favourite 1.50 – 2.19	0	—	—	—	—
Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches	4	2	4.88	−2.88	−100.0%
Underdog 3.50 or more	13	11	11.09	−0.09	−6.2%

With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.

Match by match

M	Opponent	Date	ResultRes.	Odds to win	Expected	PointsPts	Gap	Running total	€1 bet
M1	Nurnberg · Home27 Jul 2019	27 Jul 2019	L 0-1	2.65	1.35	0	−1.35	−1.35	−€1.00
M2	Karlsruhe · Away3 Aug 2019	3 Aug 2019	L 2-4	3.55	1.07	0	−1.07	−2.43	−€1.00
M3	Heidenheim · Home18 Aug 2019	18 Aug 2019	W 2-1	2.62	1.35	3	+1.65	−0.78	+€1.62
M4	Darmstadt · Away23 Aug 2019	23 Aug 2019	D 0-0	2.86	1.27	1	−0.27	−1.04	−€1.00
M5	St Pauli · Home31 Aug 2019	31 Aug 2019	D 3-3	2.16	1.58	1	−0.58	−1.63	−€1.00
M6	Bochum · Away15 Sep 2019	15 Sep 2019	D 2-2	3.11	1.17	1	−0.17	−1.80	−€1.00
M7	Regensburg · Home22 Sep 2019	22 Sep 2019	W 2-1	2.33	1.47	3	+1.53	−0.27	+€1.33
M8	Erzgebirge Aue · Away29 Sep 2019	29 Sep 2019	L 1-4	2.93	1.24	0	−1.24	−1.51	−€1.00
M9	Hannover · Home5 Oct 2019	5 Oct 2019	L 0-2	2.71	1.32	0	−1.32	−2.83	−€1.00
M10	Greuther Furth · Away18 Oct 2019	18 Oct 2019	L 0-2	3.03	1.21	0	−1.21	−4.03	−€1.00
M11	Bielefeld · Home26 Oct 2019	26 Oct 2019	L 0-1	3.71	1.01	0	−1.01	−5.05	−€1.00
M12	Stuttgart · Away3 Nov 2019	3 Nov 2019	L 1-3	7.77	0.55	0	−0.55	−5.59	−€1.00
M13	Wehen · Home8 Nov 2019	8 Nov 2019	W 1-0	2.12	1.60	3	+1.40	−4.19	+€1.12
M14	Hamburg · Away23 Nov 2019	23 Nov 2019	L 1-2	9.45	0.48	0	−0.48	−4.67	−€1.00
M15	Holstein Kiel · Home30 Nov 2019	30 Nov 2019	L 1-2	3.21	1.14	0	−1.14	−5.81	−€1.00
M16	Sandhausen · Home8 Dec 2019	8 Dec 2019	D 1-1	2.84	1.28	1	−0.28	−6.09	−€1.00
M17	Osnabruck · Away15 Dec 2019	15 Dec 2019	L 0-3	3.78	1.02	0	−1.02	−7.11	−€1.00
M18	Nurnberg · Away20 Dec 2019	20 Dec 2019	L 0-2	4.73	0.83	0	−0.83	−7.94	−€1.00
M19	Karlsruhe · Home29 Jan 2020	29 Jan 2020	W 1-0	2.44	1.44	3	+1.56	−6.38	+€1.44
M20	Heidenheim · Away2 Feb 2020	2 Feb 2020	D 0-0	4.28	0.94	1	+0.06	−6.32	−€1.00
M21	Darmstadt · Home7 Feb 2020	7 Feb 2020	L 2-3	2.30	1.52	0	−1.52	−7.84	−€1.00
M22	St Pauli · Away14 Feb 2020	14 Feb 2020	D 0-0	3.99	0.98	1	+0.02	−7.83	−€1.00
M23	Bochum · Home22 Feb 2020	22 Feb 2020	L 1-2	2.55	1.40	0	−1.40	−9.22	−€1.00
M24	Regensburg · Away28 Feb 2020	28 Feb 2020	W 2-1	3.89	1.00	3	+2.00	−7.22	+€2.89
M25	Erzgebirge Aue · Home8 Mar 2020	8 Mar 2020	W 2-1	2.65	1.38	3	+1.62	−5.60	+€1.65
M26	Stuttgart · Home31 May 2020	31 May 2020	L 0-2	5.19	0.77	0	−0.77	−6.36	−€1.00
M27	Hannover · Away3 Jun 2020	3 Jun 2020	L 0-3	5.34	0.77	0	−0.77	−7.14	−€1.00
M28	Wehen · Away6 Jun 2020	6 Jun 2020	W 3-2	3.71	1.04	3	+1.96	−5.17	+€2.71
M29	Greuther Furth · Home9 Jun 2020	9 Jun 2020	D 1-1	2.85	1.26	1	−0.26	−5.44	−€1.00
M30	Hamburg · Home12 Jun 2020	12 Jun 2020	L 0-1	6.07	0.68	0	−0.68	−6.12	−€1.00
M31	Bielefeld · Away15 Jun 2020	15 Jun 2020	L 0-4	6.35	0.67	0	−0.67	−6.79	−€1.00
M32	Holstein Kiel · Away18 Jun 2020	18 Jun 2020	L 0-2	4.29	0.89	0	−0.89	−7.68	−€1.00
M33	Sandhausen · Away21 Jun 2020	21 Jun 2020	W 1-0	4.60	0.85	3	+2.15	−5.53	+€3.60
M34	Osnabruck · Home28 Jun 2020	28 Jun 2020	D 2-2	2.88	1.24	1	−0.24	−5.78	−€1.00
Total					37.78	32	−5.78		−€9.64