Points
39Points expected by the market
48.65Gap
−9.65Yield
−31.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 18 | −6.14 | −31.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 16 | 20 | −0.66 | −14.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 1 | −2.85 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 15 | −2.38 | −25.1% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 7 | 11 | +1.58 | +10.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 0 | — | — | — |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 4 | 3 | −3.77 | −47.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 9 | 9 | −2.24 | −33.9% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 4 | 1 | −2.85 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Fortuna Dusseldorf · Home2 Aug 2025 | W 5-1 | 3 | +1.64 | +1.64 |
| M2 | Holstein Kiel · Away10 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.73 | +3.37 |
| M3 | Dresden · Home24 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.69 | +1.68 |
| M4 | Braunschweig · Away30 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.45 | +1.22 |
| M5 | Magdeburg · Home12 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.39 | +2.62 |
| M6 | Greuther Furth · Home19 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.87 | +0.75 |
| M7 | Hannover · Away28 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.99 | −0.24 |
| M8 | Schalke 04 · Home5 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.32 | −1.56 |
| M9 | Paderborn · Away18 Oct 2025 | L 3-4 | 0 | −0.85 | −2.42 |
| M10 | Elversberg · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.78 | −0.64 |
| M11 | Darmstadt · Away1 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.75 |
| M12 | Karlsruhe · Home8 Nov 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.35 | +0.61 |
| M13 | Nurnberg · Away23 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.24 | −0.64 |
| M14 | Preußen Münster · Home30 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.87 | −2.51 |
| M15 | Bochum · Away6 Dec 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.31 | −3.82 |
| M16 | Kaiserslautern · Home13 Dec 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.62 | −4.44 |
| M17 | Hertha · Away19 Dec 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.03 | −4.46 |
| M18 | Fortuna Dusseldorf · Away16 Jan 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.32 | −5.79 |
| M19 | Holstein Kiel · Home23 Jan 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.51 | −6.30 |
| M20 | Dresden · Away1 Feb 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.35 | −6.65 |
| M21 | Braunschweig · Home8 Feb 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.19 | −5.45 |
| M22 | Magdeburg · Away15 Feb 2026 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.87 | −3.59 |
| M23 | Greuther Furth · Away20 Feb 2026 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.77 | −5.35 |
| M24 | Hannover · Home28 Feb 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.30 | −6.66 |
| M25 | Schalke 04 · Away6 Mar 2026 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.98 | −7.64 |
| M26 | Paderborn · Home14 Mar 2026 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.24 | −7.88 |
| M27 | Elversberg · Away21 Mar 2026 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.05 | −8.93 |
| M28 | Darmstadt · Home4 Apr 2026 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.54 | −7.38 |
| M29 | Karlsruhe · Away10 Apr 2026 | L 1-4 | 0 | −1.61 | −9.00 |
| M30 | Nurnberg · Home18 Apr 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.68 | −9.67 |
| M31 | Preußen Münster · Away25 Apr 2026 | W 3-2 | 3 | +1.41 | −8.26 |
| M32 | Bochum · Home2 May 2026 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.67 | −8.93 |
| M33 | Kaiserslautern · Away8 May 2026 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.80 | −10.73 |
| M34 | Hertha · Home17 May 2026 | W 6-1 | 3 | +1.08 | −9.65 |
| Total | 39 | −9.65 | |||