Points
60Points expected by the market
55.29Gap
+4.71Yield
+11.1%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.10 | +22.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 33 | +6.39 | +27.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 12 | 11 | −4.40 | −47.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 10 | +1.63 | +56.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 2 | 6 | +1.10 | +22.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 33 | +6.39 | +27.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.28 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 6 | +4.24 | +370.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 11 | −3.12 | −42.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 4 | −2.61 | −22.3% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Corinthians · Home31 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| M2 | Santos · Away7 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.88 |
| M3 | Mirassol · Home13 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.13 | −2.01 |
| M4 | Cruzeiro · Away18 Apr 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.14 | −3.15 |
| M5 | Ceara · Home22 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.15 | −2.00 |
| M6 | Palmeiras · Away27 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.31 | +0.31 |
| M7 | Botafogo RJ · Home4 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.28 | +1.59 |
| M8 | Flamengo RJ · Away11 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.54 | +1.05 |
| M9 | Vitoria · Home18 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.07 | +2.13 |
| M10 | Gremio · Away25 May 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.24 | +0.89 |
| M11 | Sao Paulo · Home31 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.18 | +2.07 |
| M12 | Bragantino · Away12 Jun 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.87 | +3.94 |
| M13 | Atletico-MG · Home13 Jul 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.36 | +5.29 |
| M14 | Fortaleza · Away19 Jul 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.43 | +4.87 |
| M15 | Juventude · Home27 Jul 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.61 | +5.47 |
| M16 | Sport Recife · Away2 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.51 | +4.96 |
| M17 | Fluminense · Home10 Aug 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.98 | +3.99 |
| M18 | Corinthians · Away17 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.72 | +5.71 |
| M19 | Santos · Home24 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.03 | +6.74 |
| M20 | Mirassol · Away31 Aug 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.18 | +5.56 |
| M21 | Cruzeiro · Home16 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.28 | +4.28 |
| M22 | Ceara · Away20 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.33 | +3.95 |
| M23 | Vasco · Away24 Sep 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.18 | +2.77 |
| M24 | Palmeiras · Home28 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.02 | +4.79 |
| M25 | Botafogo RJ · Away2 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.95 | +3.85 |
| M26 | Flamengo RJ · Home5 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.22 | +6.06 |
| M27 | Vitoria · Away17 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.49 | +5.58 |
| M28 | Gremio · Home20 Oct 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.12 | +6.70 |
| M29 | Internacional · Home22 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.13 | +7.83 |
| M30 | Sao Paulo · Away26 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.93 | +6.89 |
| M31 | Bragantino · Home2 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.03 | +7.93 |
| M32 | Atletico-MG · Away5 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.08 | +6.85 |
| M33 | Internacional · Away8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.16 | +6.68 |
| M34 | Fortaleza · Home20 Nov 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −2.09 | +4.60 |
| M35 | Vasco · Home23 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.05 | +5.65 |
| M36 | Juventude · Away28 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.54 | +5.11 |
| M37 | Sport Recife · Home3 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +0.49 | +5.60 |
| M38 | Fluminense · Away7 Dec 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.89 | +4.71 |
| Total | 60 | +4.71 | |||