Points
48Points expected by the market
49.32Gap
−1.32Yield
+2.4%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.78 | +42.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 9 | 14 | −2.05 | −14.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 13 | 21 | +3.04 | +28.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 15 | 10 | −3.08 | −12.3% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.78 | +42.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 8 | 14 | −0.12 | −3.7% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 14 | +2.51 | +30.3% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 2 | 0 | −1.99 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 1 | 0 | −1.94 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 5 | 7 | +0.53 | +24.6% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 13 | 10 | −1.09 | +1.2% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Ceara · Home1 Apr 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| M2 | Fluminense · Away6 Apr 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.88 | −1.61 |
| M3 | Botafogo RJ · Home12 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.73 | +0.12 |
| M4 | Sport Recife · Away16 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.80 | +1.92 |
| M5 | Cruzeiro · Home21 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.40 | +3.32 |
| M6 | Santos · Away28 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.91 | +5.23 |
| M7 | Mirassol · Home5 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.16 | +6.39 |
| M8 | Gremio · Away10 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.32 | +6.07 |
| M9 | Palmeiras · Home18 May 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.02 | +5.04 |
| M10 | Juventude · Home27 May 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.78 | +5.82 |
| M11 | Vasco · Away1 Jun 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.77 | +7.59 |
| M12 | Bahia · Home12 Jun 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.56 | +6.03 |
| M13 | Corinthians · Away13 Jul 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.04 | +8.07 |
| M14 | Sao Paulo · Home17 Jul 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.50 | +7.57 |
| M15 | Vitoria · Away20 Jul 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.22 | +6.35 |
| M16 | Flamengo RJ · Home24 Jul 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.97 | +5.39 |
| M17 | Fortaleza · Away26 Jul 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.93 | +4.45 |
| M18 | Atletico-MG · Away3 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.98 | +3.47 |
| M19 | Internacional · Home9 Aug 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.29 | +2.18 |
| M20 | Ceara · Away16 Aug 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.09 | +1.10 |
| M21 | Fluminense · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 4-2 | 3 | +1.56 | +2.66 |
| M22 | Botafogo RJ · Away30 Aug 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.82 | +1.84 |
| M23 | Sport Recife · Home14 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.92 | +0.93 |
| M24 | Cruzeiro · Away22 Sep 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.65 | +0.28 |
| M25 | Santos · Home28 Sep 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.28 |
| M26 | Mirassol · Away1 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.15 |
| M27 | Gremio · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.25 | +1.10 |
| M28 | Palmeiras · Away15 Oct 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.94 | −0.84 |
| M29 | Juventude · Away20 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.50 | −2.34 |
| M30 | Vasco · Home26 Oct 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.63 | −3.97 |
| M31 | Bahia · Away2 Nov 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.78 | −4.75 |
| M32 | Corinthians · Home5 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.67 | −3.08 |
| M33 | Sao Paulo · Away9 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +2.21 | −0.87 |
| M34 | Atletico-MG · Home16 Nov 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +0.58 |
| M35 | Flamengo RJ · Away23 Nov 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.49 | +0.09 |
| M36 | Fortaleza · Home26 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.81 | −1.72 |
| M37 | Vitoria · Home3 Dec 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.17 | −0.55 |
| M38 | Internacional · Away7 Dec 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.76 | −1.32 |
| Total | 48 | −1.32 | |||