Points
70Points expected by the market
57.02Gap
+12.98Yield
+17.6%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 9 | +0.16 | +4.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 12 | 25 | +2.34 | +2.6% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 14 | 29 | +10.14 | +68.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 7 | +0.34 | −41.6% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 4 | 9 | +0.16 | +4.7% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 10 | 21 | +1.54 | +1.2% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 10 | +4.17 | +89.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +2.10 | +367.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 4 | +0.80 | +9.5% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 10 | 19 | +5.96 | +59.5% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 7 | 4 | −1.76 | −100.0% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Mirassol · Home29 Mar 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.94 | +0.94 |
| M2 | Internacional · Away6 Apr 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.72 | +0.22 |
| M3 | Sao Paulo · Away13 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.33 |
| M4 | Bahia · Home18 Apr 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.45 | +1.78 |
| M5 | Bragantino · Away21 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.11 | +0.68 |
| M6 | Vasco · Home27 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.41 | +2.09 |
| M7 | Flamengo RJ · Home4 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +2.10 | +4.19 |
| M8 | Sport Recife · Away11 May 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +1.77 | +5.96 |
| M9 | Atletico-MG · Home19 May 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.43 | +5.53 |
| M10 | Fortaleza · Away26 May 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.86 | +7.39 |
| M11 | Palmeiras · Home1 Jun 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.74 | +9.13 |
| M12 | Vitoria · Away12 Jun 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.54 | +8.59 |
| M13 | Gremio · Home14 Jul 2025 | W 4-1 | 3 | +0.99 | +9.58 |
| M14 | Fluminense · Away17 Jul 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.86 | +11.44 |
| M15 | Juventude · Home20 Jul 2025 | W 4-0 | 3 | +0.66 | +12.10 |
| M16 | Corinthians · Away23 Jul 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.32 | +11.79 |
| M17 | Ceara · Home27 Jul 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.15 | +9.63 |
| M18 | Botafogo RJ · Away3 Aug 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.88 | +11.51 |
| M19 | Santos · Home10 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −2.07 | +9.44 |
| M20 | Mirassol · Away19 Aug 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.39 | +9.05 |
| M21 | Internacional · Home23 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.15 | +10.20 |
| M22 | Sao Paulo · Home31 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.23 | +11.43 |
| M23 | Bahia · Away16 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.58 | +13.01 |
| M24 | Bragantino · Home22 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +0.87 | +13.88 |
| M25 | Vasco · Away27 Sep 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.40 | +12.48 |
| M26 | Flamengo RJ · Away3 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.30 | +12.78 |
| M27 | Sport Recife · Home6 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.08 | +11.70 |
| M28 | Atletico-MG · Away16 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.04 | +11.66 |
| M29 | Fortaleza · Home19 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.97 | +12.63 |
| M30 | Palmeiras · Away26 Oct 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.21 | +12.84 |
| M31 | Vitoria · Home1 Nov 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.78 | +13.62 |
| M32 | Gremio · Away5 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.43 | +15.05 |
| M33 | Fluminense · Home9 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.75 | +14.31 |
| M34 | Juventude · Away20 Nov 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | −0.63 | +13.67 |
| M35 | Corinthians · Home23 Nov 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.07 | +14.74 |
| M36 | Ceara · Away30 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.34 | +14.41 |
| M37 | Botafogo RJ · Home4 Dec 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.91 | +13.50 |
| M38 | Santos · Away7 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −0.52 | +12.98 |
| Total | 70 | +12.98 | |||