Points
64Points expected by the market
56.31Gap
+7.69Yield
+8.0%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it rises, the team is doing better than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.78 | +38.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 16 | 42 | +12.42 | +44.3% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 7 | −8.10 | −51.4% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 10 | 12 | +2.59 | +12.2% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.78 | +38.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 14 | 40 | +13.67 | +64.9% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 3 | 0 | −4.37 | −100.0% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 3 | +1.92 | +268.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 few matches | 2 | 2 | −1.25 | −100.0% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 8 | 7 | −3.73 | −33.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 9 | +0.67 | −16.2% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Fortaleza · Away29 Mar 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.21 | −1.21 |
| M2 | Bragantino · Home6 Apr 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.16 | −0.04 |
| M3 | Santos · Home13 Apr 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.12 | +1.08 |
| M4 | Corinthians · Away16 Apr 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.93 | +3.01 |
| M5 | Vitoria · Home20 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.98 | +2.04 |
| M6 | Botafogo RJ · Away27 Apr 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.05 | +0.99 |
| M7 | Sport Recife · Home3 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.10 | +2.09 |
| M8 | Atletico-MG · Away11 May 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −0.94 | +1.15 |
| M9 | Juventude · Away18 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.49 |
| M10 | Vasco · Home24 May 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.14 | +1.63 |
| M11 | Internacional · Away2 Jun 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.93 | +3.56 |
| M12 | Cruzeiro · Home17 Jul 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.53 | +2.03 |
| M13 | Flamengo RJ · Away20 Jul 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.81 | +1.22 |
| M14 | Palmeiras · Home23 Jul 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.31 | −0.08 |
| M15 | Sao Paulo · Away27 Jul 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.00 | −1.09 |
| M16 | Gremio · Home3 Aug 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.21 | +0.12 |
| M17 | Bahia · Away10 Aug 2025 | D 3-3 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.36 |
| M18 | Fortaleza · Home16 Aug 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.11 | +1.47 |
| M19 | Bragantino · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.26 | +0.22 |
| M20 | Santos · Away31 Aug 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 |
| M21 | Corinthians · Home14 Sep 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.53 | −1.53 |
| M22 | Vitoria · Away20 Sep 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.71 | +0.17 |
| M23 | Botafogo RJ · Home28 Sep 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.35 | +1.52 |
| M24 | Sport Recife · Away1 Oct 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.58 | +0.94 |
| M25 | Atletico-MG · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +1.24 | +2.18 |
| M26 | Mirassol · Away9 Oct 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.36 | +0.82 |
| M27 | Juventude · Home17 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.78 | +1.59 |
| M28 | Vasco · Away20 Oct 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.54 | +0.05 |
| M29 | Internacional · Home25 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.06 | +1.11 |
| M30 | Ceara · Home29 Oct 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.94 | +2.05 |
| M31 | Ceara · Away2 Nov 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.42 | +0.63 |
| M32 | Mirassol · Home6 Nov 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +1.15 | +1.78 |
| M33 | Cruzeiro · Away9 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.04 | +1.82 |
| M34 | Flamengo RJ · Home20 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.92 | +3.74 |
| M35 | Palmeiras · Away23 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | +0.32 | +4.07 |
| M36 | Sao Paulo · Home27 Nov 2025 | W 6-0 | 3 | +0.91 | +4.98 |
| M37 | Gremio · Away3 Dec 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.57 | +6.54 |
| M38 | Bahia · Home7 Dec 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.15 | +7.69 |
| Total | 64 | +7.69 | |||