Points
44Points expected by the market
55.46Gap
−11.46Yield
−40.8%Market film
Cumulative gapMatch aboveMatch below
The bars are what the team gained or lost against expectations in each match; the line, the running total. If it falls, the team is doing worse than the market expected.
Performance by odds
Matches grouped by the average closing odds on the team to win: how it does as a heavy favourite, as a favourite, in even matches or as an underdog.
| Odds band | Matches playedMP | PointsPts | Gap | Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.76 | +40.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 23 | −1.68 | −26.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 15 | 14 | −6.80 | −46.7% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 9 | 4 | −3.73 | −61.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 few matches | 1 | 3 | +0.76 | +40.0% |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 13 | 23 | −1.68 | −26.4% |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 few matches | 4 | 4 | −1.88 | −42.8% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more few matches | 1 | 0 | −0.90 | −100.0% |
| Heavy favourite under 1.50 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Favourite 1.50 – 2.19 | 0 | — | — | — |
| Even 2.20 – 3.49 | 11 | 10 | −4.92 | −48.1% |
| Underdog 3.50 or more | 8 | 4 | −2.83 | −56.1% |
With fewer than 5 matches in a band, the figure is only indicative.
Match by match
| M | Opponent | ResultRes. | PointsPts | Gap | Running total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1 | Flamengo RJ · Away30 Mar 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.13 |
| M2 | Cruzeiro · Home6 Apr 2025 | W 3-0 | 3 | +0.98 | +1.12 |
| M3 | Fortaleza · Away14 Apr 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.68 |
| M4 | Palmeiras · Home16 Apr 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.36 | −0.68 |
| M5 | Gremio · Away20 Apr 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.51 | −1.19 |
| M6 | Juventude · Home26 Apr 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +0.76 | −0.43 |
| M7 | Corinthians · Away3 May 2025 | L 2-4 | 0 | −1.26 | −1.69 |
| M8 | Botafogo RJ · Away12 May 2025 | L 0-4 | 0 | −0.80 | −2.49 |
| M9 | Mirassol · Home19 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.95 | −3.45 |
| M10 | Sport Recife · Away25 May 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.27 | −3.71 |
| M11 | Fluminense · Home2 Jun 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −1.62 | −5.34 |
| M12 | Atletico-MG · Away13 Jun 2025 | L 0-2 | 0 | −0.94 | −6.27 |
| M13 | Vitoria · Home12 Jul 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.93 | −5.35 |
| M14 | Ceara · Home20 Jul 2025 | W 1-0 | 3 | +0.98 | −4.37 |
| M15 | Santos · Away24 Jul 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.80 | −2.57 |
| M16 | Vasco · Home27 Jul 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −1.07 | −3.64 |
| M17 | Sao Paulo · Home4 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −1.46 | −5.10 |
| M18 | Bragantino · Away9 Aug 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.60 | −3.50 |
| M19 | Flamengo RJ · Home17 Aug 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −0.90 | −4.40 |
| M20 | Cruzeiro · Away23 Aug 2025 | L 1-2 | 0 | −0.87 | −5.27 |
| M21 | Fortaleza · Home1 Sep 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.02 | −4.26 |
| M22 | Palmeiras · Away13 Sep 2025 | L 1-4 | 0 | −0.60 | −4.86 |
| M23 | Gremio · Home21 Sep 2025 | L 2-3 | 0 | −1.80 | −6.66 |
| M24 | Juventude · Away27 Sep 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.55 | −7.21 |
| M25 | Corinthians · Home1 Oct 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.71 | −7.92 |
| M26 | Botafogo RJ · Home4 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.48 | −6.44 |
| M27 | Mirassol · Away16 Oct 2025 | L 1-3 | 0 | −1.52 | −7.96 |
| M28 | Sport Recife · Home19 Oct 2025 | W 2-0 | 3 | +1.01 | −6.94 |
| M29 | Bahia · Away22 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.87 | −7.81 |
| M30 | Fluminense · Away25 Oct 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −0.79 | −8.60 |
| M31 | Atletico-MG · Home2 Nov 2025 | D 0-0 | 1 | −0.69 | −9.29 |
| M32 | Vitoria · Away5 Nov 2025 | L 0-1 | 0 | −1.26 | −10.55 |
| M33 | Bahia · Home8 Nov 2025 | D 2-2 | 1 | −0.54 | −11.09 |
| M34 | Ceara · Away21 Nov 2025 | W 2-1 | 3 | +1.90 | −9.18 |
| M35 | Santos · Home25 Nov 2025 | D 1-1 | 1 | −0.75 | −9.93 |
| M36 | Vasco · Away28 Nov 2025 | L 1-5 | 0 | −1.24 | −11.17 |
| M37 | Sao Paulo · Away3 Dec 2025 | L 0-3 | 0 | −1.28 | −12.45 |
| M38 | Bragantino · Home7 Dec 2025 | W 3-1 | 3 | +1.00 | −11.46 |
| Total | 44 | −11.46 | |||